Cynthia L. Herzog 
Bitcoin (BTC) and several altcoins are trading in a tight range over the weekend, suggesting investors are undecided on the next directional move. Traders may be waiting for Wall Street to open before placing big directional bets, as Bitcoin has been highly correlated with the S&P 500 for the past few days.
The sharp fall in US stock markets on April 22 suggests that investors are increasingly nervous about the hawkish stance of central banks. The market expects a rate hike of 250 basis points by the US Federal Reserve in 2022. In addition, the European Central Bank is expected to raise rates for the first time since 2011, according to a Reuters source.
Data from Coinglass showed that funding rates on crypto derivatives exchanges remained negative over the weekend, signaling a bearish bias. The failure to sustain a rally has pushed the Crypto Fear and Greed Index back into “extreme fear” territory.
Could Bitcoin Attract Large Buys at Lower Levels? If this happens, some altcoins could outperform on the upside. Let’s study the charts of the top 5 cryptocurrencies that show a positive chart structure.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin fell below the psychological support at $40,000 on April 22, but the bears were unable to capitalize on this advantage. Successive candlestick patterns within the day on April 23 and 24 suggest indecision among the bulls and bears.
The 20-day exponential moving average ($41,150) is down and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the negative zone, indicating that the sellers have a slight advantage. If the bears sink and hold the price below $39,000, the BTC/USDT pair could drop to the ascending channel support line. The bulls should defend this level vigorously.
If the price rebounds forcefully off the support line, it will indicate strong demand at lower levels. The bulls will need to push and hold the price above the 50-day simple moving average ($41,993) to signal that the correction may be over. The pair may then attempt a rally towards the 200-day SMA ($47,828).
Alternatively, if the price breaks below the channel, the selling could intensify further and the pair could drop to $34,322 and later to $32,917.
The 4-hour chart shows that the price is stuck in a tight range between $39,177 and $39,980. This indicates that the bears are trying to turn the $40,000 level into resistance. The downward sloping 20-EMA and the RSI in negative territory suggest that the path of least resistance is on the downside.
If the price breaks below $39,177, the pair could slip to $38,536. A break and close below this level could open the doors for a decline to $37,000.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price recovers from the current level and breaks above the 50-SMA, the bullish momentum could resume and the pair could reach the 200-SMA.
DOT/USDT
Polkadot (DOT) has been trading near overhead resistance at $19 for the past few days. This suggests that the bears managed to defend the level, but a small silver lining is that the bulls didn’t give much ground to the sellers.
The slightly descending 20-day EMA ($19) and the RSI in the negative zone suggest that the bears have a slight advantage. If the price declines and breaks below $18, the possibility of a drop from the strong support at $16 increases.
Conversely, if the bulls push the price above the 50-day SMA ($19), the bullish momentum could pick up and the DOT/USDT pair could rally towards broad resistance at $23. The Bears should mount a solid defense at this level.
The 4-hour chart shows the formation of a descending triangle that will end on a breakout and close below $18. If that happens, the pair could drop to $17 and later to $16.
Conversely, if the price rises from the current level and breaks above the downtrend line, it may invalidate the bearish pattern. This could attract buyers and the pair could rally to the 200-SMA.
A break and close above this level could signal an advantage for buyers. The pair can then attempt a rally to $23.
XMR/USDT
Monero (XMR) is correcting in an upward move. The price declined from $290 on April 22, indicating that the bears pose a strong challenge near the psychological level at $300.
The XMR/USDT pair might first drop to the 20-day EMA ($245), which is likely to act as strong support. If the price bounces off this level with strength, it will indicate that the bulls are buying on the downside. The pair could then again attempt a break above the overhead resistance at $300. If that happens, the pair could rally to $340.
Alternatively, if the price breaks below the 20-day EMA, the selling could intensify and the pair could slide towards the 50-day SMA ($215).
The pair fell below the 50-SMA, indicating profit booking by short-term traders. If the price continues to fall and breaks below $250, the selling could accelerate and the pair could drop to $240 and later to the 200-SMA.
Any bounce is likely to face selling at the 20-EMA. Bulls will need to push and hold the price above the 20-EMA to indicate that the correction may be over. The pair could then rise to $280 and later to $290.
Related: Breakout of Monero’s ‘falling wedge’ positions XMR price for 75% rally
APE/USDT
ApeCoin (APE) broke out of the symmetrical triangle pattern on April 19, indicating that indecision among bulls and bears has resolved in favor of buyers.
The 20-day EMA ($13.67) has risen and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating that the bulls are in charge. There is minor resistance at $18.44 from which the APE/USDT pair moved lower on April 23rd.
If the price rises from the current level, the bulls will attempt to push the pair above $18.44. If they succeed, the pair could climb towards $20 and later up to $24. This positive view could be invalidated in the short term if the price declines and falls below the 20-day EMA.
The 4-hour chart shows that the pair fell $18 but rebounded strongly off the 20-EMA. This suggests that sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on dips. If the price holds above $17, the bulls will attempt to resume the upward move.
Although the rising 20-EMA indicates an advantage for the buyers, the RSI has formed a negative divergence suggesting that the positive momentum may be waning. If the price declines from the current level and slides below the 20-EMA, the selling could intensify and the pair could slide towards the 50-SMA.
CAKE/USDT
PancakeSwap (CAKE) recently bounced off the downtrend line, indicating that the bulls had tipped the level into support. The price broke above the 20-day EMA and is trying to reach the 200-day SMA ($11.52).
The 20-day EMA ($8.69) and 50-day SMA ($7.71) are gradually rising and the relative strength index is in positive territory, suggesting that the bulls have the upper hand. If the buyers push and hold the price above the 200-day SMA, the CAKE/USDT pair could rise to $13.50 and later to $15.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price is falling from the 200-day SMA, it will suggest that the bears have not given up yet and are continuing to sell on the rallies. The pair may then fall to the 20-day EMA. If the price bounces off this support, it will increase the possibility of a break above the 200-day SMA. This positive view could be invalidated if the price breaks below the 50-day SMA.
The moving averages on the 4-hour chart have risen and the RSI is in positive territory, indicating that the bulls have the upper hand. If the price rises from the current level or the 20-EMA, buyers will try to push the pair above the psychological level at $10. If they succeed, the pair could gain momentum.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price declines from the current level, the bears will attempt to pull the pair below the 20-EMA. If they do, the pair may slide towards the 50-SMA and later towards the 200-SMA. A break and close below this support could suggest that the bears are back in the game.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
